Leaked papers warn that Russia is becoming a safe 'sanctuary' due to the West limiting Ukraine's weaponry, and that Putin's threshold for a nuclear strike is 'much lower' than previously thought. Ukraine's military estimates that Russia may possess up to 16,000 tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, possibly four times more than the US.
The Kremlin's chilling nuclear stockpile—potentially 6,000 strategic bombs and 10,000 tactical weapons—positions Russia as the top global nuclear threat. A leaked Ukrainian military assessment reveals that President Vladimir Putin may have secretly lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike. The document states, “Although the Russian leadership believes that it has surpassed the West militarily thanks to its superweapons, Moscow’s threshold for the use of military force in conflict situations will also continue to decrease.” It also suggests that “Russian open-source estimates of Russian reserves provide much higher estimates than Western ones.”
The document supports Russian expert Sergei Rogov’s claim that Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal might number around 6,000 weapons, while estimates of its non-strategic nuclear weapons range from a few thousand to more than 10,000. Strategic nuclear weapons are typically larger, like the bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Tactical weapons, with usually smaller yields, are reserved for battlefield targets, aiming to hit the enemy hard while avoiding fallout on friendly troops.
Ukrainian military documents obtained by the Mirror warn that the US administration is turning Russia into a safe "sanctuary" by restricting Ukraine's ability to target within Russia. This restriction could enhance the Kremlin's ability to threaten a nuclear attack on Ukraine or a global nuclear war. The documents state, “Russia’s potential use of nuclear weapons is hampering Western efforts to provide aid to Ukraine.”
Russia's nuclear threats are impacting the US administration, which has banned the supply of vital weapons and aid to Ukraine’s armed forces, fearing an escalation into a world war. The emphasis on avoiding a Third World War, without measures to strengthen Russia’s deterrence, has increased the influence of Russia’s nuclear threats.
Recently, US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons inside Russia but only to defend the northeastern city of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian military dossier argues that limiting Ukraine’s weapon usage either by not providing necessary arms or by demanding usage guarantees benefits Putin. It warns, “Russia has achieved nuclear superiority, which the Putin regime believes gives it leverage over the US and its allies. Putin will use nuclear weapons if he considers it in his interests.”
The assessment by Kyiv argues that Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” doctrine makes a Kremlin nuclear strike over Ukraine more likely than previously thought. It warns that Western estimates of Russia’s nuclear capability are inaccurate and understate the current size and expansion plans of Russia’s nuclear forces.
The Ukrainians fear that Moscow possesses two to four times more nuclear weapons than the United States, which is thought to have 3,750 active and inactive nuclear weapons. The document also suggests that false flag attacks, such as a chemical attack blamed on Ukraine, could precede a Kremlin nuclear attack. According to Russia’s regulations, conventional attacks on Russian military facilities can be met with a nuclear strike.
The dossier highlights that Putin’s former General Yuriy Baluyevsky, who penned Russia’s 2010 nuclear doctrine, admitted that not all of the Kremlin’s nuclear attack conditions are public. There are secret thresholds for a pre-emptive attack. Baluyevsky stated, “conditions for a pre-emptive nuclear strike ... are determined by secret policy documents.”
Bruce Jones, a leading expert on the Russian military, said, “Russia is extending a nuclear umbrella under which it can perpetrate acts of war against civilian populations without fear of meaningful conventional military retaliation. The Kremlin is intimidating NATO nations from responding proactively. Putin seeks either a direct or indirect military victory against the collective West to cement his legacy in Russian history, aligning with Beijing’s military ambitions.
Unlike the West, Russia is prepared to use nuclear weapons if advantageous. It is unclear how Western governments would respond to a limited nuclear strike against a non-aligned country or a newer NATO member, other than with vocal outrage. NATO and the EU are inhibited from responding in kind due to fear of retaliation.”
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