ISW explains what is behind Russia's massing of forces in Belgorod region to the border of Ukraine

The Russian occupation army continues to concentrate forces in the western part of the Belgorod region, near the border with Ukraine. This tactic aims to attract Ukrainian troops to the area and prepare for offensive operations.

Putin's troops are likely to attempt to expand their foothold near the international border in northeastern Ukraine, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts have noted that Russian forces are concentrating near the settlements of Hraivoron, Borysivka, and Proletarskyi in western Belgorod. Recent satellite imagery indicates increased activity at local warehouses, suggesting an expansion of Russian operations. However, the exact number of Russian forces in this region remains unclear.

Andriy Demchenko, a representative of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, mentioned that Russian occupiers might launch offensive operations in the Sumy region or adjacent areas of the Kharkiv region. This strategy aims to stretch and consolidate Ukrainian forces along the international border in the northeast.

The ISW highlighted that the area around Hraivoron, Borysivka, and Proletarskyi offers Russian troops a strategic position to launch offensives southward towards Zolochiv and Bohodukhiv, located 25 kilometers from the state border, or westward along the P-45 highway connecting Bohodukhiv to Sumy. Russian forces might conduct offensives in one or both directions, forcing Ukrainian troops to redeploy across a broader section of the border in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated that Russia continues to amass troops near the border, close to the current offensive sites in the Kharkiv region, suggesting preparations for new offensive actions.

Previously, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported that while Russian units remain near the Sumy region border, their numbers are currently insufficient for full-scale hostilities like those in the Kharkiv region. Nonetheless, the Defense Forces are prepared for various scenarios.