If Kyiv falls, the Baltics, Moldova, and the Balkans are at risk—not just from tanks, but from hybrid warfare that wouldn’t trigger Article 5.
Russia recently celebrated Victory Day, commemorating the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany. During the parade, Putin promised another victory, this time over Ukraine. Such an outcome would threaten not only Ukraine but also European and global security. Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine; he aims to weaken NATO, fracture Western unity, and subjugate Russia’s neighbors. The war in Ukraine is a critical moment in his broader struggle against the West and the existing world order.
Putin claims Russia has no plans to attack any NATO country, leading many Western leaders to believe that NATO’s Article 5 guarantees their safety. However, if Russia prevails in Ukraine, other countries, including NATO members, will face greater threats. Conversely, Western support for Ukraine signals to Putin that any attack on NATO will come at a high price, prompting him to prepare accordingly.
This reality is clear to Russia’s neighbors. The Baltic nations have warned that Russia could quickly shift from Ukraine to invading their territory. Moldova, aspiring to join the West and escape Russian influence, fears it will be next if Ukraine falls.
Russia doesn’t need to deploy tanks and jets to these regions. A victorious Russia, with increased capacity, could use hybrid warfare, including "little green men" and information campaigns, to create conflicts that appear internal and thus not covered by Article 5. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius cautioned that Russia could attack a NATO member within “five to eight years,” not necessarily through overt military action.
Russia is already destabilizing Europe. In May, NATO warned of an intensifying Russian campaign of cyberattacks and hybrid operations against its members. British intelligence has indicated that Moscow is planning physical attacks in the West. Russia recruits far-right extremists for targeted attacks and stages acts of sabotage across Europe, with more planned. Russia also attempts to interfere in the European Parliament elections and will likely target the U.S. elections in November.
In the Western Balkans, Russia uses hybrid warfare to stir ethnic tensions in Serbia, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. As Georgia faces protests over a proposed law targeting civil society and EU aspirations, Russia is considering security assistance. With Moldova’s elections and EU membership vote this year, Russia will likely exploit the opportunity to sow discord.
A Russian victory in Kyiv would also have significant implications in the Indo-Pacific. If Moscow outlasts the West in Ukraine, Beijing might believe it can pursue military aggression against Taiwan with minimal resistance. Additionally, Russia aims to expand its military presence in Africa, leveraging the remnants of its Wagner mercenary group. Russia and China view the decline of U.S. global power as essential and advocate for a multipolar world not led by Washington.
The West must understand Putin’s strategy to win this war. Since coming to power, Putin has aimed to gain "reflexive control" of the West, an old Soviet concept involving manipulation to compel governments to act in the Kremlin’s interest. This strategy involves massive psychological manipulation to destabilize states and societies, as seen in Ukraine before the Maidan Revolution in 2014.
President Zelensky emphasized focusing on victory. However, many in the West lack this clarity, offering only vague promises of support “for as long as it takes.” This ambiguity benefits Putin, allowing for a prolonged conflict.
The West has the power to ensure Russia’s defeat. Collectively, Western countries surpass Russia economically and militarily. They must turn this potential into reality by standing with Ukraine and providing the necessary weapons and training for battlefield success. Otherwise, Ukraine will be just the first domino to fall.
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