Russian Missile Attacks on Ukrainian Civilians
In the occupied regions of Eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are launching waves of missiles at Ukrainian civilian targets. Each of Russia’s advanced missile launch systems costs over US$100 million (A$150 million), allowing them to attack from safe distances behind the front lines.
Stealthy Missile Systems and Open-Source Detection
The S-300 surface-to-air missile launcher, designed to evade detection, has its location closely guarded. However, using publicly available satellite images, telltale signs of these weapons' operations have been identified, revealing their locations.
The Rise of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT)
The strategic and tactical use of publicly available data, known as open-source intelligence (OSINT), has become a significant concern for militaries. Intelligence agencies prioritize OSINT as more data is digitized and accessible online, turning social media, satellite images, and leaked data into valuable intelligence sources.
OSINT in the Ukraine Conflict
The Ukraine conflict has seen substantial use of OSINT. Social media has documented the movements of soldiers and military vehicles, and has exposed Russian misinformation campaigns that falsely accuse Ukrainian forces of targeting civilians. OSINT provides analysts with a cost-effective means of informing decision-making, acting as a force multiplier in conflicts like the Russia–Ukraine war.
Tracking Missile Systems Online
In 2018, researchers found that the Sentinel-1 satellite, a public-access satellite operated by the European Space Agency, could reveal the location of the United States’ Patriot missile systems by detecting radar emissions, which appear as bands of interference in imagery.
Mobility and Vulnerability of Missile Systems
Surface-to-air missile systems are designed to be mobile and surprise enemies. However, OSINT now allows anyone with internet access to locate these assets, posing new challenges for military leaders in protecting civilians, soldiers, and critical infrastructure from enemy attacks.
Real-Time Challenges in Russia and Ukraine
In Eastern Ukraine, we used Sentinel-1 to locate active and mobile Russian S-300 missile systems. By analyzing social media sources for confirmed S-300 locations and examining Sentinel-1 imagery for radar interference, we identified these systems. For example, an S-300 in Kherson Oblast was neutralized shortly after being detected by satellite imagery.
Global Implications and Ethical Considerations
The S-300 system is used not only by Russia but also by countries like Iran and China. Its detection through public satellite imagery highlights vulnerabilities for various militaries. Non-state combatants and less sophisticated militaries can potentially locate and destroy expensive assets using publicly available data.
Ukraine has demonstrated the effectiveness of low-cost drones in destroying costly air defense systems, showing how ordinary tools can be repurposed for warfare. While OSINT can be used for nefarious purposes by malicious actors, it also allows analysts and journalists to investigate war crimes, human rights abuses, and report events more accurately.
Future Challenges for OSINT
The importance of OSINT and the skills required to analyze public data are growing for militaries and intelligence organizations. However, public data platforms, like satellite imagery from the European Space Agency, present ongoing challenges.
The Dilemma of Data Accessibility
In response to these challenges, institutions, businesses, and governments might consider restricting public data to mitigate its unintended impact. This would pose its own risks, potentially undermining transparency, public trust, and access to information for those with fewer resources.
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