A UK military expert has warned that Putin may be preparing to seize Kyiv in a new assault.
Reports indicate that Russia is amassing troops in the Belgorod region, near Ukraine's border.
Ukraine's President Zelensky informed national TV on Sunday that the Kremlin was building up military units in the Graivoron-Borisovka-Proletarsky area, about 90 km from Kharkiv. Satellite imagery supports his claims, showing increased Russian troop activity at bases and storage points in the area in recent weeks.
Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford believes the troop buildup is preparation for a renewed assault on Ukraine's capital city. The former British army officer pointed out that Putin's original plan to capture Kyiv at the start of the war was both "strategically and tactically sound." The failure, he said, was in the execution, not the strategy.
Capturing Kyiv would topple Zelensky's government and potentially bring the war to a swift end. "I think there is a distinct possibility that the Russians will try to take Kyiv in their forthcoming Spring/Summer offensive, seeking to do so before the promised western weaponry bolsters Ukrainian defences," he explained on his Substack blog.
"They may make demonstrations and feints elsewhere to distract the Ukrainian defenders, but Putin's surest way to victory is to take Kyiv."
The defence analyst noted it would be difficult for Putin to launch a surprise attack given the amount of NATO surveillance of the region. However, he added, "The Russians are past masters at deceit, decoy, and deception. They just might be able to pull it off."
Putin's army caught Kyiv off guard when it launched an assault in Ukraine's Kharkiv province in early May. The Kremlin's forces made rapid progress in the initial attack, seizing around 278 square kilometers (107 square miles) between May 9 and 15. These gains are the largest made by the Russians since the end of 2022 and are partly due to their numerical superiority in both manpower and arms.
Ukraine had been starved of new weapons due to political wrangling in Washington between Trump Republicans and Joe Biden's administration. Eventually, in April, Congress approved a US$61 billion military support package that will deliver new weapons to Ukraine's beleaguered forces in the coming weeks and months.
The delay in aid has allowed Putin's generals to regain the battlefield initiative, putting Ukraine firmly on the backfoot.
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