Russian leader Vladimir Putin is playing a much weaker hand in the war in Ukraine than he projects, according to Kurt Volker, former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine, who spoke on Thursday.
At the Lennart Meri Conference (LMC) in Tallinn, Volker told "Aktuaalne kaamera" (AK) that the delay in the U.S. delivering the latest military aid package to Ukraine was a significant setback for the country, a mistake that should not be repeated.
Indrek Kannik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), highlighted during his keynote speech at the LMC that Ukraine's situation seems worse than it was a year ago. This assessment comes amidst Russia's recent advances in the Kharkiv oblast of northern Ukraine, an area initially targeted in the early stages of the full-scale invasion.
Other analysts at the LMC echoed a cautious outlook, recognizing the challenges without succumbing to despair.
Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, stated, "After a seven-month strategic pause without U.S. aid, Ukraine is out of ammunition. It’s very difficult to predict anything, but obviously, Ukrainian armed forces will do their best to prevent the Russians from taking more territories."
Volker emphasized that the delay in American aid—specifically, the $60 billion package finally approved by Congress last month—was a significant setback for Ukraine, giving Russia an opportunity to attack critical infrastructure. Volker gained prominence during the Trump administration when allegations arose that then-President Trump pressured Ukraine by threatening to withhold military aid.
Volker noted the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s potential policies towards Ukraine if he were to win the upcoming presidential election. "When this was stalled in Congress and it was difficult for Speaker [Mike] Johnson to bring it to a vote, it was Trump who provided Johnson the political cover to get it done," Volker said.
Volker also pointed out that Putin is indeed operating from a position of weakness. He mentioned the recent change in the Russian defense minister as an effort to find financial resources to boost defense production. "He's burned through modern weapons and equipment and is now reaching into storage, retrieving items from the World War II era," Volker explained.
Contrary to some beliefs, Volker does not see Russia having an endless supply of manpower for the conflict in Ukraine. Danylyuk, however, dismissed the notion that Ukraine is running out of soldiers, stressing that the main issue is equipping the troops rather than recruiting them. "They have little mechanization, and many are trained individuals with extensive battlefield experience," Danylyuk said.
Danylyuk added that Russia's objective in Kharkiv is to divert Ukrainian attention from Donbas in the east.
Kurt Volker, 59, served as U.S. Ambassador to NATO during the latter part of George W. Bush's presidency and later volunteered as the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine under Donald Trump. He resigned from that post in September 2019 amid allegations that he was instructed by the White House to pressure President Zelenskyy of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden ahead of the 2020 election. A whistleblower later claimed that Volker advised Ukrainian leaders on how to handle the White House's requests.
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