Russia’s weeklong offensive in northeastern Ukraine has raised alarms in Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals to bolster their defenses.
Zelensky has canceled foreign trips and met with key commanders in Kharkiv, a city now targeted by Moscow. Despite lacking the forces to capture Ukraine's second city, Russia's attacks are straining Ukraine's already stretched defenses, which are grappling with shortages of manpower, air defenses, and artillery.
General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, stated that Russia lacks the numbers and capability for a strategic breakthrough. After a two-day meeting in Brussels, he expressed confidence that Ukraine's defenses would hold.
Currently, Russia has over half a million troops attacking Ukraine, giving them a "significant" numerical advantage, according to Jack Watling from the Royal United Services Institute. He suggests Russian generals may be trying to force Ukraine to spread its forces thin along the 1000km front line, creating exploitable weaknesses.
Watling predicts that an attack on Kharkiv might be followed by another in the south near Zaporizhzhia, diverting Ukrainian reserves from the eastern Donbas region. There are also suggestions of a potential offensive in the northern Sumy region.
Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, noted that pressure along the front line could weaken Ukrainian positions in the south and east, potentially leading to a breakthrough there.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is in China to strengthen ties with Xi Jinping and seek support for Russia's war effort. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv, pledging expedited arms supplies to Ukraine amidst the most severe incursion since the war began over two years ago.
Russia has been exploiting Ukraine’s air defense shortages to bombard Kharkiv, preparing for infantry advances. Recently, Russian troops made significant moves in northeastern Ukraine, seizing some villages and entering Vovchansk, near the border.
With Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi directing operations in Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces have managed to slow Russian activity. According to allied intelligence, the front line has stabilized, and the pace of Russian operations has decreased.
Dara Massicot from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace warns that Ukraine is highly vulnerable, with Russia likely to intensify attacks in the east before Western military aid fully arrives. However, she notes the limitations of Russian military power, emphasizing Ukraine's defensive effectiveness when adequately supplied.
The US recently approved $61 billion in aid for Ukraine, providing ammunition, armored vehicles, missiles, and air defenses. Despite this, Kyiv is frustrated by a US ban on using American weapons to attack Russian territory. Ukrainian lawmakers are lobbying in Washington to lift this restriction, arguing it hindered pre-emptive action against the Russian assault in the northeast.
President Putin claimed Russian forces have repelled all Ukrainian counter-attacks and improved their positions daily. Russia’s February victory in Avdiivka was its first significant gain in months.
A senior European diplomat acknowledged concerns about Russian progress but remained hopeful that with the promised aid, Ukraine could stabilize the front and push back Russian forces. Ukrainian military analyst Mykola Bielieskov suggests a strategy of "active defense," trading space for time and restoring the front line through counter-attacks.
The Institute for the Study of War noted that since May 10, Russian troops have been making tactical advances in Kharkiv, aiming to establish a buffer zone. Meanwhile, Russian border areas, including Belgorod, have faced repeated Ukrainian shelling.
Pukhov described Russia’s strategy as aiming to "inflict a thousand cuts" to wear down Ukrainian forces and achieve significant gains, with the most realistic goal being the seizure of the entire Donbas region.
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