Moscow made a significant announcement, both expected and surprising: Sergei Shoigu, Russia's Defense Minister since 2012, is being replaced. Andrei Belousov, currently serving as First Deputy Prime Minister, will assume the role starting May 14.
Belousov will be the third Defense Minister in a row without military experience or a background in national security. Shoigu, initially a construction foreman, took over as Defense Minister in 2012, succeeding Anatoliy Serdyukov, a former furniture company executive. The move raises questions about Shoigu's departure and its implications for the Ukraine conflict.
Shoigu's dismissal was anticipated by many. Criticism mounted against him following Russia's military struggles against the Ukrainian Armed Forces since the 2022 invasion, attributed to issues like insufficient training and defective weapons. A personal feud with Yevgenniy Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group Private Military Company, also escalated in June 2023, leading to demands for Shoigu's removal.
Speculation intensified in late April after one of Shoigu's close confidants, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on bribery charges, earning the nickname "Shoigu's wallet" for his access to considerable funding. Corruption within the Ministry of Defense surged after the Ukraine invasion, undermining defense capabilities and demanding accountability.
However, Shoigu won't fade into obscurity. Instead, he'll lead the National Security Council, displacing long-time Putin ally Nikolai Patrushev, who had held the position since 2008. Patrushev, a former KGB official, remains influential, and his new responsibilities remain undisclosed.
These changes coincide with Russia's fifth term under Putin and reflect strategic realignments amid ongoing conflicts. Belousov's appointment signals a focus on defense industrial sector overhaul and combatting corruption, crucial for modernizing weapon systems. With defense spending increasing to Cold War levels, effective management is imperative.
The bifurcation of military management enables Shoigu to oversee defense policy while addressing corruption. He retains roles in key decision-making bodies like the Military-Industrial Commission and the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation.
Additionally, the reshuffle reflects considerations regarding China's support. With China supplying crucial technology to Russia's defense sector, maintaining Beijing's backing is vital. Analysts suggest Beijing's concerns about the war's outcome influenced these changes, emphasizing the need for a robust Russian war effort.
The new defense minister's technocratic approach signifies a maturing strategic partnership with China, geared towards sustained cooperation beyond immediate needs. While China's interests align with a successful Russian campaign, they are primarily concerned with avoiding fallout from failure, rather than material shortages.
Ultimately, these changes signal a nuanced response to evolving geopolitical dynamics, underscoring the complexity of managing both domestic and international pressures amid ongoing conflicts.
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