Following nearly 12 years serving as Russia’s defense minister, General Sergei Shoigu has been reassigned to a new role as the head of the country’s security council, marking an unexpected shift in the Kremlin’s military leadership.
While the creation of a new defense minister position during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine surprised many, the more significant upheaval for analysts was the displacement of former spy chief Nikolai Patrushev from his role as secretary of the security council to accommodate General Shoigu.
“The removal of Patrushev, who is likely one of the most significant figures for Russian President Vladimir Putin, from the security council leaves us uncertain about his future,” commented Dr. Stephen Hall, a lecturer specializing in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath. “There are rumors suggesting he may lead the Russian delegation to the United Nations, which would signify not just a demotion but the end of his career.”
This change occurred following the arrest of General Shoigu’s deputy, Timur Ivanov, last month on charges of bribery, with accusations of accepting bribes on a large scale. Some observers speculated that this unusual move against a member of Russia’s ruling elite, many of whom are believed to have amassed wealth through corruption, could indicate General Shoigu’s vulnerability.
Dr. Hall suggested that the security council serves as a place for Putin to retire those he is close to or has an affinity with.
General Shoigu, 68, has been regarded as a key figure in Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, anticipating a swift resolution. However, the conflict has prolonged, resulting in significant setbacks for the Russian military, including defeats in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson in 2022.
Criticism of Shoigu's handling of the war, coupled with perceptions of his lack of military experience, has been voiced.
British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps pointed out Shoigu's oversight of significant casualties among Russian soldiers and civilian suffering due to an illegal campaign in Ukraine. He predicted that the next Russian defense minister would be another appointee loyal to Putin.
Dr. Hall noted that while Putin expects unwavering loyalty from high-ranking officials, they still retain some agency. He likened their relationship to Putin as more akin to harlequins than puppets.
Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, will retain his position overseeing troops and reporting to Putin.
Putin has proposed appointing Andrei Belousov, a former economic adviser to the president and minister of economic development, as the new defense minister. Although Belousov lacks military experience, his appointment signals a shift towards a more economic approach to the war in Ukraine, with a focus on resource allocation.
Mark Galeotti, author of "Putin’s Wars: from Chechnya to Ukraine," and director of Mayak Intelligence consultancy, described Belousov’s appointment as a logical choice given the financial administrative nature of the role.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin desires the defense ministry to embrace innovation and cutting-edge ideas. Belousov's candidacy will require approval from Russia’s upper house in parliament, the Federation Council.
David Lewis, professor of global politics at the University of Exeter, believes Belousov's unexpected appointment reflects Putin’s long-term strategy in the war against Ukraine, emphasizing economic sustainability alongside military tactics.
The future role of Patrushev, 72, who has been a close associate of Putin since their time together at the KGB in the 1970s, remains uncertain. The Kremlin announced that he would be assigned a different position, to be disclosed in the coming days.
In a related reshuffle, Dmitry Patrushev, formerly the agriculture minister, has been appointed as a deputy prime minister overseeing the agricultural sector. These changes come shortly after Putin's inauguration for a fifth term in office.
Comments
Post a Comment