Confidential Ukrainian assessments obtained by The Washington Post reveal that the accuracy rates of some Western weapons have significantly decreased due to Russian jamming disrupting their guidance systems. Many U.S.-made satellite-guided munitions in Ukraine have failed against Russian jamming technology, leading Kyiv to halt the use of certain Western-provided armaments after their effectiveness plummeted, according to senior Ukrainian military officials and confidential assessments.
Russian jamming of modern Western weapons' guidance systems, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), has impaired Ukraine's defense capabilities. This situation has led Kyiv to urgently seek upgrades from the Pentagon and arms manufacturers.
Russia's ability to counter high-tech munitions has significant implications for Ukraine and its Western allies, potentially offering a model for adversaries like China and Iran. This capability has allowed Moscow's forces to regain the initiative on the battlefield. For instance, the success rate of U.S.-designed Excalibur shells dropped sharply over months to less than 10% hitting their targets before Ukraine abandoned their use last year, as per the confidential assessments.
While other reports have noted Russia's superior electronic warfare capabilities, the documents obtained by The Post provide previously undisclosed details on the extent to which Russian jamming has thwarted Western weaponry.
"The Excalibur technology in existing versions has lost its potential," the assessments noted, adding that battlefield experience in Ukraine has dispelled its "one shot, one target" reputation, at least until the Pentagon and U.S. manufacturers address the issue. Following Ukrainian reports of the problem, Washington ceased providing Excalibur shells six months ago due to their high failure rate. However, for other munitions like aircraft-dropped JDAMs, manufacturers provided fixes, and Ukraine continues to use them.
Ukraine's military command prepared the reports between fall 2023 and April 2024 and shared them with the U.S. and other allies, hoping to develop solutions and establish direct contact with weapons manufacturers. In interviews, Ukrainian officials described a bureaucratic process that has hindered timely adjustments to improve the failing weaponry. They agreed to discuss the assessments to draw attention to the military's needs. Several Ukrainian and U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity due to the issue's sensitivity.
A senior U.S. defense official acknowledged that the Pentagon anticipated some precision-guided munitions would be defeated by Russian electronic warfare and has worked with Ukraine to refine tactics and techniques. Russia "has continued to expand their use of electronic warfare," the official said, and the U.S. continues to evolve to ensure Ukraine has effective capabilities.
The Pentagon official rejected claims of bureaucratic delays, stating that solutions are sometimes provided within hours or days, though no specific examples were given.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense stated that it cooperates regularly with the Pentagon and communicates directly with weapons manufacturers to address technical problems promptly. U.S.-made guided munitions initially performed well in Ukraine but became less effective as Russian forces adapted, rendering some previously potent weapons less advantageous.
In a conventional war, the U.S. military might not face the same difficulties due to its advanced air force and electronic countermeasures. Nonetheless, Russia's capabilities pressure Washington and NATO allies to continue innovating.
The war in Ukraine has served as a modern testing ground for Western arms against a sophisticated opponent capable of jamming GPS navigation. Innovation is a key feature of conflicts, and both sides continually adapt and exploit vulnerabilities. The Russian military has long invested in electronic warfare systems that overwhelm signals and frequencies of electronic components like GPS navigation, essential for guiding precision munitions.
Initially, Ukrainian forces had success using Excalibur 155mm rounds, with more than 50% hitting their targets early last year. However, over several months, this rate fell below 10%, with Russian GPS jamming identified as the cause. Although fewer shells were fired later in the study period, the assessments suggest that Ukrainian artillerymen largely stopped using Excalibur shells due to their complexity and reduced effectiveness.
Despite sharing feedback with Washington, Ukrainian officials received no response. They faced similar challenges with other Western-guided 155mm shells. Excalibur rounds, fired by U.S. artillery systems like the M777, were intended to destroy targets such as enemy artillery and armored vehicles from about 15 to 24 miles away.
Rob Lee, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, noted that Russia's use of electronic warfare to combat guided munitions is a significant battlefield development. Many weapons are potent when first introduced but lose effectiveness over time as adversaries adapt. Defense companies' involvement is crucial to overcoming Russian defenses like jamming, though Lee noted a lack of urgency compared to Russian manufacturers.
A web of Russian electronic warfare systems and air defenses poses a significant threat to Ukrainian pilots. Some Russian jammers also scramble aircraft navigation systems, creating a dense defense network. Potential fixes seem limited until the West delivers F-16 fighter jets, which would enable Ukraine's Air Force to push Russian pilots back and utilize different weapons more effectively.
The aircraft-dropped JDAMs illustrate the declining effectiveness of weaponry. Their introduction in February 2023 initially surprised Russia, but success rates soon dropped due to jamming. After feedback from Ukraine, U.S. and manufacturers provided improved systems in May, increasing JDAMs' accuracy to over 60% by the end of 2023.
HIMARS, celebrated for striking ammunition depots and command points behind enemy lines in the first year of Russia's invasion, became less effective as Russian electronic warfare advanced. Ukrainian military documents recommended using M26 cluster munitions as an alternative to HIMARS' guided rockets, as these low-tech, unguided rockets resist jamming and can still hit targets in a wide area even if imprecise.
Despite Russian jamming causing HIMARS rockets to miss targets by 50 feet or more, Ukrainian forces continue to use them effectively. Targeting known electronic warfare systems with drones before using HIMARS has proven effective in some cases.
One U.S. weapon, the GBU-39 small-diameter bomb, has shown resilience to jamming, with nearly 90% hitting their targets. Its smaller surface area makes it harder for Russian systems to detect and intercept. Adapted for land use in HIMARS systems, the ground-launched small-diameter bombs (GLSDB) were less effective, and adjustments are being made before reissue.
Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles from Britain have been less susceptible to Russian jamming due to their multiple navigation systems, although Russian air defenses have had some success intercepting them. U.S.-provided ATACMS long-range missiles, effective so far, also face potential jamming threats.
Ukrainian officials expect current effective weapons to become less effective within a year as the Russians learn to counter them, continuing the arms race dynamics.
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