Without adequate air defenses to counter assaults and enable repairs, the shortages could worsen as demand spikes in late summer and the bitter-cold winter.
Russian airstrikes targeting the grid since March have caused blackouts to return to the capital, Kyiv, which hadn't experienced them since the first year of the war. Notably, an April barrage damaged Kyiv’s largest thermal power plant, and a massive attack on May 8 targeted power generation and transmission facilities in several regions.
Overall, half of Ukraine’s energy system was damaged, according to Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Entire apartment blocks in the capital went dark, and the city's military administration reported that at least 10% of consumers were disconnected.
For many, this foreshadows the challenges Ukraine will face if it doesn’t secure alternative electricity sources before winter.
Early Wednesday, a Russian drone attack on Sumy plunged the northern Ukrainian city into darkness. Some power was restored to the city of around a quarter-million people in the morning as crews rushed to repair the damage, local authorities said.
With continued attacks on the power grid and inadequate defenses, quick fixes to the electricity shortages are unlikely, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko explained. Ukraine is appealing to Western allies for more air defense systems and spare parts to repair its Soviet-era plants.
“With each attack, we lose additional power generation, so it just goes minus, minus, minus,” Halushchenko said Tuesday while standing outside a coal-fired plant in central Ukraine destroyed in an April 11 attack. Repair efforts are futile until the military can defend the plant from further attacks.
“Should we repair power stations just for the Russians to renew strikes while we are unable to defend ourselves?” the minister asked.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock joined him on the plant visit, underscoring Ukraine’s urgent need to close the power gap.
The first major test of the grid will come in July and August when summer heat drives up consumption to levels similar to the sub-freezing winter months, the minister said.
By mid-May, Kyiv’s residents felt the impact of Russia’s attacks. A cold snap increased consumption, forcing Ukrenergo, the main transmission system operator, to introduce controlled blackouts throughout the country. Ukraine can't generate enough power to cover evening peaks, and the shortage exceeds the country’s ability to import electricity from Poland, Slovakia, and Romania.
The April 11 attack on the plant destroyed generators, transformers, and turbines—every essential part for generating electricity, said Yevhen Harkavyi, the technical director of Centrenergo, which operates the plant.
Five missiles hit the facility that day, and workers were still clearing away rubble on Tuesday as snow-like tufts of poplar cotton fell through a hole in the roof.
The plan for winter is to restore power generation as much as possible, said Harkavyi. However, how this will be achieved remains unclear: “The situation is already too difficult," he conceded.
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