Russia started new offensive early and with too few soldiers, as it tried to get ahead of US aid to Ukraine, experts say

Russia launched its recent offensive in northern Ukraine prematurely and with insufficient troops, aiming to outpace incoming Western aid, according to experts.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington DC-based think tank, reported that Russian forces initiated the offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast earlier than planned, using an understrength force. This was an attempt to secure a foothold before the arrival of resumed U.S. military aid made such progress more difficult.

Last month, Congress approved the resumption of aid for Ukraine after a six-month delay caused by Republican opposition. The $61 billion aid package is expected to significantly impact the battlefield.

Russia began its new offensive in Kharkiv, located in northeast Ukraine, earlier this month. The ISW noted that Russia managed to surprise Ukraine initially, making gains in less-defended areas. However, the premature start of the offensive appears to have hindered Russian success in the region.

Ukraine has since reinforced its defenses, leading the ISW to conclude that Russian forces have likely lost their tactical advantage to make rapid gains against lightly-held positions. Earlier this month, Ukraine reported that it had slowed Russia's advance, limiting it to no more than six miles into Ukrainian territory.

The ISW indicated that Russia is attempting to bolster its Northern Grouping of Forces to its planned strength before escalating operations in the region. Ukrainian sources suggest this could involve increasing troop numbers to 70,000, up from 35,000 at the offensive's start. However, the ISW cautioned that even a force of 70,000 would lack the necessary manpower to successfully encircle or seize Kharkiv City.

While some U.S. artillery and military assets have already arrived in Ukraine, additional equipment will take longer to reach the front lines. In April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia was using ten times more artillery than Ukraine and had thirty times more aircraft. Ukrainian soldiers have reported rationing ammunition and limiting their targets due to shortages.

Russia has attempted to exploit these shortages by trying to deplete Ukraine's air defense missiles. Despite the ISW's analysis, the situation remains fluid and uncertain, with challenges continuing for Ukraine, which faces a significant manpower and resource disadvantage compared to Russia.

On Sunday, Russia claimed to have captured the village of Berestove in northeast Kharkiv, though this has not been confirmed. Zelenskyy stated on Saturday that Russian forces have experienced an eight-to-one casualty ratio compared to Ukraine. The ISW also reported that Ukraine reclaimed some territory near the city of Vovchansk in the region last week.