A renewed Russian offensive has reclaimed miles of territory near Kharkiv, a crucial Ukrainian city. However, U.S. officials and military analysts assert that a significant breakthrough is unlikely due to a surge in U.S. weapon supplies and Russia’s failure to effectively coordinate its ground and air forces.
Despite this, Ukrainian forces remain under threat from Russian drones, missiles, and shelling along a 700-mile front. Backed by billions in U.S. military aid, Ukrainian troops are expected to limit Russian advances. However, Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city located northeast of Kyiv, may face increased bombardment as Russian artillery approaches.
Interviews with U.S. and Ukrainian officials, intelligence assessments, and military experts support the view that Russia's progress in this protracted two-year war remains incremental. "The Ukrainians are not in danger of losing, but they’re not winning right now," stated Seth Jones, director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He noted the absence of peace talks, with Russia feeling it has the initiative.
The intensified combat comes as Ukraine is outgunned, running low on ammunition, and awaiting a new $60 billion U.S. military aid package. Since last week, Russia has advanced two to five miles in northeastern Ukraine, primarily over open terrain. A U.S. official, speaking anonymously, expressed concern that the Russian advance might bring Kharkiv within range of Russian artillery. U.S. officials believe Russia aims to establish a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine to prevent cross-border attacks.
While a Russian breakthrough appears unlikely, Ukrainian morale and manpower are strained after months of continuous fighting, few reinforcements, and dwindling ammunition supplies. The delay in the U.S. military aid package has weakened Ukrainian defenses, particularly air defenses crucial to countering Russian missile and glide-bomb attacks. The recently approved aid is now reaching the frontlines, and Ukraine is expanding the eligibility for military service to bolster its forces.
Mykola Bielieskov, a military research fellow at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, indicated uncertainty about when the new U.S. military aid would impact the situation. In a blog post for the Atlantic Council, Bielieskov noted that while the renewed Russian presence in northern Ukraine marks a significant escalation, Russia's immediate military goals appear limited. Despite Russia's concentration of up to 35,000 soldiers on its side of the border, he dismissed suggestions that Russia is close to capturing Kharkiv.
Phillips P. O'Brien, a professor of strategic security studies at the University of St. Andrews, concurred. He noted that after Ukraine sent reinforcements to the area, Russian forces halted their advance. "Let’s see if they can take Vovchansk, a small town, first," O'Brien commented.
Russia’s difficulty in coordinating troops, tanks, and air support limits its ability to breach Ukrainian defenses, Jones explained. Ukraine's effective air defenses have prevented Russia from gaining the air superiority necessary for major ground advances.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces have recently seized territory in at least four northeastern Ukrainian towns: Hlyboke, Neskuchne, Starytsya, and Vovchansk. However, the ISW noted that the pace of Russian operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast has slowed after initial gains in less defended areas.
A Ukrainian reconnaissance soldier in the Kharkiv region predicted a larger Russian offensive push in the coming days but did not see an imminent threat to Kharkiv itself. He criticized missed opportunities for defensive preparations, such as placing landmines around key towns to slow Russian advances. The soldier, speaking anonymously, expressed frustration that U.S. military aid has been sufficient for survival and resistance but not for victory.
The high cost of Russia's minor gains is evident, with nearly 900 Russian troops being killed or wounded daily, according to British Defense Intelligence. Since the invasion began in February 2022, over 465,000 Russian troops have been estimated killed or wounded. This casualty rate is expected to rise as Russia intensifies its offensive, potentially surpassing 500,000 by summer. Despite this, Russian President Vladimir Putin has managed to suppress domestic dissent by deploying troops from Siberia, Central Asia, and prison inmates, while sparing the sons of elites from Moscow and St. Petersburg.
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