With national politics dominating the airwaves as 'election fever' grips the country, it's crucial to ensure that India retains its strategic autonomy and decision-making flexibility amid the growing Russia-China alliance.
The French poet Paul Valery once observed, “Two dangers constantly threaten the world: order and disorder.” This notion resurfaced during Russian President Vladimir Putin's two-day visit to China starting May 16, ostensibly to celebrate 75 years of Russia-China friendship. This was Putin’s first foreign trip after his re-election, during which he and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed their strategic partnership, marking a “new era” of cooperation. Both leaders criticized the U.S.-led global order, describing the U.S. as a “hostile and destructive” hegemon, a sentiment expected given the strained US-Russia and US-China relations.
Notably, just two days before Putin's arrival in Beijing, Washington imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries, semiconductors, aluminum and steel, solar panels, and medical products.
The "no limits" partnership declared by the two leaders just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 appears to be strengthening. Russia and China's views converge on numerous geopolitical issues, from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East quagmire. While Moscow supports Beijing’s stance on Taiwan, Beijing discreetly endorses Russia's position in the Russia-Ukraine war, maintaining a public posture of neutrality to avoid U.S. and EU sanctions. The U.K. claims to have evidence of China supplying lethal ammunition to Russia.
Growing evidence of Chinese malfeasance has led an American think-tank analyst to dub this an “axis of dictatorships.” In their 7000-word joint statement, Putin and Xi shared their worldview, particularly their opposition to the U.S., accusing it of “containing” their nations. The statement included commitments to deepen cooperation in space, nuclear power research, and strategic areas. Ten agreements were signed, including one to expand military cooperation, signaling a ‘de facto’ alliance, even if not formally declared.
Russia-China bilateral trade has significantly increased. Under Western sanctions, the Russian economy has been propped up by China, which has increased its imports from Russia. Their trade, conducted in Yuan-Roubles, helps bypass sanctions. However, China limits its exports to Russia to avoid Western sanctions, trading instead through smaller regional banks not exposed to the West.
China has also been pushing for collaboration on renewables and clean energy. Russia's capabilities in these fields are minimal, making it reliant on Chinese products. This dual benefit for China provides leverage over Russia while bolstering China’s image as an environmentally conscious nation.
The complex intertwining of hard power, soft power, economic interdependencies, and technological weaponization makes modern international relations and geopolitics intricate. Alliances often see disagreements, while rivals might find common ground. India’s policy of maintaining friendly relations with all, termed “multi-alignment” or “all-alignment,” has roots in Cold War non-alignment strategies that yielded benefits. However, the ascendancy of Xi Jinping as Chinese President in 2013 and Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 have sparked global chaos, creating challenges for India due to the converging Russian and Chinese worldviews, which India does not share.
The recent meeting between Putin and Xi, their 42nd since 2013, is rooted in their shared animosity towards the U.S. For India, the U.S. is vital for growth and security. While the USSR had significant influence in the ‘Global South,’ Russia's influence has waned compared to China’s growing clout in these regions.
The expanding influence of the Russia-China alliance poses challenges for India, likely escalating a struggle for leadership in the Global South. As national politics dominate, it's crucial that India ensures its strategic autonomy is not compromised by the Russia-China partnership. Relying on historical references like the China-USSR split and India-Russia friendship to downplay the current threat would be a mistake.
In the India-Russia-China dynamic, Russia needs China more than India, and their worldviews align more closely. Russia appears to have overlooked Chinese actions in Ladakh. India’s reliance on Russian arms is a vulnerability that needs significant reduction.
It's time for India to shed its traditional hesitation in commenting on Russian actions that indirectly support China. A timely confirmation of India’s attendance at the ‘Summit on Peace in Ukraine’ next month and active participation would send a subtle but crucial message. The Xi-Putin alliance does not bode well for India, and strategic steps must be taken to address this.
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