Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent cabinet reshuffle and military purge have fueled speculation that he is consolidating power for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine.
Putin has appointed economist Andrei Belousov as the new defense chief, replacing Sergei Shoigu. Shoigu, in turn, has been named secretary of Russia’s security council, replacing the ousted security chief Nikolai Patrushev, who will now serve as Putin’s aide.
The reshuffle also included the arrest of Lt. Gen. Yuri Kuznetsov, a high-ranking military official, on suspicion of criminal activity, as reported by Russian state media.
Experts suggest that these changes reflect a strategy to prioritize economic management over military leadership to sustain Russia’s war efforts for years. Additionally, it appears aimed at eliminating potential threats to Putin’s power. “We will see more arrests as a signal that the rules have changed,” said Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert and head of the consultancy firm Mayak Intelligence in London. He added that Putin’s actions indicate a long-term commitment to the conflict in Ukraine.
Putin was recently sworn in for a fifth term, extending his leadership until at least 2030. One of his initial moves was to replace Shoigu, who had been defense minister since 2012, marking the first major shake-up of the Kremlin’s national security team since the Ukraine invasion began in February 2022.
Belousov, formerly a deputy prime minister and economic advisor to Putin, has no military experience. His appointment is seen as an effort to streamline defense spending. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the security budget had grown to over 6.5% of GDP and that Belousov’s task would be to align it with the country’s economic needs. Peskov emphasized that a civilian was chosen to lead defense matters because "innovation on the battlefield" is crucial.
Shoigu’s close relationship with Putin and his reassignment highlight the significance of this reshuffle. Similarly, Patrushev’s move is perceived as a demotion despite his long-standing role as a confidant and key player in Putin’s security apparatus.
Retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman interpreted Patrushev’s sidelining as a move to consolidate Kremlin power rather than a direct strategy for the Ukraine conflict. He suggested it was aimed at weakening opposing factions within the government and insulating Putin’s authority.
Shoigu, along with Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian military, faced criticism for battlefield failures in Ukraine despite recent gains. “Shoigu was effective in peacetime but failed in wartime,” Galeotti told The Hill, noting that the reshuffle was a necessary change.
Additionally, Russia’s security services recently arrested Shoigu’s deputy defense minister, Timur Ivanov, on corruption charges, which Western analysts viewed as an attempt to undermine Shoigu further.
In response to Russia’s personnel changes, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh highlighted Russia’s battlefield failures without commenting on the reshuffle. Others believe the timing of these changes, just before Putin’s visit to Beijing, aims to deepen economic ties with China to bolster long-term military capabilities. Jonathan Ward, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, suggested that Putin is seeking China’s support to sustain the war effort and align the Russian and Chinese economies.
These cabinet shifts mark a turning point in Russia’s war strategy, reflecting a transition to a wartime economy and a long-term conflict approach. Despite facing major economic sanctions, Russia’s economy grew in 2023, largely driven by increased military spending.
Belousov’s appointment acknowledges this new reality, preparing Moscow for a prolonged conflict as Russian forces launch a new offensive in Ukraine’s northeast. The strategy appears to focus on gradual advances rather than major city assaults, as seen earlier in the war. “Russians learn lessons,” Galeotti noted, indicating that Russia is adapting its approach for a sustained war of attrition.
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