Putin is clearly testing NATO's resolve to defend the Baltic states and Finland under its Article 5 collective security defense clause. By challenging the sovereignty of the Baltic states and creating crises, he aims to gain leverage. The recent maritime border dispute with Finland and Lithuania, along with territorial tensions with Estonia on the Narva River, and air traffic disruptions in the Baltic states, are all part of this strategy.
The question now is whether Russia would actually invade the Baltic states. Putin wants us to believe it's possible, although a war with NATO would be a quick loss for Russia. He seeks to use this perceived threat to extract concessions elsewhere. NATO must respond decisively to demonstrate its commitment to defending the Baltic states and Finland, possibly by deploying more assets to the region. Turkey could play a crucial role in this response.
This situation coincides with China testing Taiwan's defenses, suggesting Putin is exploiting this distraction to blur the lines on Baltic borders and sovereignty.
We are on the brink of a significant crisis. Notably, this escalation comes as Putin restructures the Russian Ministry of Defense, appointing Belousov, and signaling that the Russian economy can sustain a prolonged war footing in Ukraine. The recent Xi-Putin summit reinforced China's support for the Russian war economy.
Putin seems to be positioning himself for negotiations with the West, particularly with Biden or Trump, over Ukraine, aiming to enter those talks with maximum leverage. Ukraine may not be ready for such talks, but a Trump victory in November could pressure Ukraine to negotiate due to financial constraints. The Biden administration is likely working to secure $61 billion in support for Ukraine and a new $50 billion initiative involving frozen Russian assets to bolster Ukraine's position in future peace talks.
We are witnessing significant shifts on multiple fronts, including U.S. movements to permit its weapons to strike into Russia and discussions about extending a NATO air defense umbrella over parts of Ukrainian territory using missile defenses located within NATO.
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