The post-Cold War era has seen a significant global dynamic unfold: a rivalry between two distinct camps. On one side, we find the loose yet potent coalition formed by nationalist China and a Russia still under the influence of Soviet-era figures. These authoritarian powers stand in opposition to a collection of states and societies commonly referred to as the 'West', despite facing various internal challenges (Hellmann et al., 2014). This article argues that while Russia, under its current leadership, poses substantial military and economic challenges, the West possesses the necessary resources to navigate these challenges. However, the real test lies in less tangible aspects like political resolve, cohesion, and character. In this regard, countries in the greater Baltic Sea region demonstrate commendable individual strengths and dedication, with all Nordic countries aligning with hyper-vigilant Baltic states and Poland within NATO. Notably, Germany has shifted its stance away from past appeasement towards a more vigilant approach, particularly in response to Kremlin cyber and psychological warfare.
The article delves into various facets of this topic across five sections. Initially, it explores the ethos and internal struggles of Western liberal democracy. Subsequently, it analyzes the motives and tactics of Russia's ruling elite. The third section focuses on Ukraine, serving as a focal point of the ongoing contest. Following that, the article evaluates the Baltic region, emphasizing its strategic significance. Lastly, it examines Germany's evolving role in the geopolitical landscape. The piece concludes by offering insights into how International Relations theory could frame this discourse.
Liberal Democracy and its Challenges
The contemporary West is characterized by its embrace of liberal democracy, a system built on principles like the separation of powers, electoral democracy, and civil liberties (V-Dem, 2023). Despite its virtues, liberal democracy faces numerous challenges exacerbated by the digital age, economic disruptions, and the rise of extremism. While criticisms abound, liberal democracy remains preferable to authoritarian alternatives for many, as evidenced by migration patterns.
A paradox of liberal democracies is their tolerance of dissenting opinions, even those sympathetic to authoritarian regimes. Discontent within Western societies sometimes translates into support or advocacy for regimes like Russia's, fueled by disillusionment with Western institutions or ideological alignment. This discontent is exploited by the Kremlin's propaganda efforts, targeting individuals dissatisfied with Western norms and values.
Motives and Methods of Russia's Leadership
The primary source of tension between Russia and the West stems from Russia's political culture, characterized by kleptocracy and authoritarianism (Åslund, 2019). Russia's ruling clique fears challenges to its power and wealth, employing tactics ranging from disinformation to military aggression to maintain control. Despite espousing principles of sovereignty, Russia has violated international norms through actions like the annexation of Crimea and interference in Ukrainian affairs.
Ukraine: Epicenter of the Conflict
The conflict in Ukraine serves as a litmus test for both the West and Russia. Western support is crucial for Ukraine's survival, while Russia's ambitions face resistance when met with unified Western opposition. While some blame Western policies for exacerbating tensions, the root of the conflict lies in Russia's authoritarianism and expansionist ambitions.
The Baltic Region's Strategic Role
Countries surrounding the Baltic Sea have assumed greater importance in light of escalating tensions. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have historical reasons to resist Russian aggression, while Denmark, Finland, and Sweden have adapted their policies to address emerging security challenges. Recent developments indicate a more unified and resolute stance among Baltic states, setting an example for Ukraine and the wider region.
Germany's Changing Attitudes
Germany's evolving stance is crucial in shaping the geopolitical landscape. While past attitudes towards Russia have been accommodating, recent years have seen a shift towards a more assertive approach, particularly in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. This shift reflects a growing recognition of the threat posed by the Kremlin and the need for collective Western action.
Implications for International Relations Theory
Understanding the dynamics between the West and Russia requires a nuanced approach drawing from various theoretical perspectives. Realist theories emphasize power dynamics and strategic interests, while constructivist approaches highlight the role of norms and identities. The ongoing conflict underscores the importance of normative differences between the West and Russia, highlighting the need for a unified Western response to authoritarian challenges.
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