As the war in Ukraine enters its third year and tensions rise across the Middle East and beyond, global security concerns are escalating. The term "Cold War 2.0" is gaining traction in foreign policy discussions, reflecting the mounting geopolitical frictions.
In his latest book, "Cold War 2.0," Canadian attorney and writer George Takach delves into this emerging era. He argues that the second Cold War, ignited by Russia’s military interventions in Ukraine and its 2014 annexation of Crimea, is evolving into a more intense state of antagonism.
Amid this backdrop, China emerges as a key hegemonic force. The critical question of whether President Xi Jinping will escalate military tensions with Taiwan and in the South China Sea will shape the future global order.
Takach recently discussed his book with The Diplomat, highlighting some of its key points.
Why is 2014 the starting point of Cold War 2.0?
In 2014, Vladimir Putin's occupation of Ukraine’s eastern territories and the annexation of Crimea marked a blatant disregard for international norms. Concurrently, China intensified its assertive actions in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan, contrasting sharply with its earlier compliance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in the 1970s and '80s. Since 2014, both Russia and China have increasingly defied the rule-based order.
How is the current era distinct from the first Cold War?
The original Cold War primarily involved the United States and the Soviet Union. In the new Cold War, the United States faces China, a country with substantial economic power and global integration. Additionally, the role of technology has dramatically changed. Innovations like artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology are now pivotal battlegrounds.
Will China’s Xi Jinping take direct military action against Taiwan?
The flourishing of liberal democracy in Taiwan is a persistent challenge to Xi Jinping. I predict that China may be prepared to launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2034. Conversations with locals in Taiwan reveal a sobering reality: without significant support from the U.S. and its Asia-Pacific allies, Taiwan could only hold out for two to three weeks against a Chinese assault.
Unlike Ukraine, where U.S. soldiers are not directly involved, a conflict over Taiwan could result in substantial American casualties. War simulations indicate that within weeks, the U.S. could lose two battleships, 20 support vessels, and 25,000 soldiers. These projections underscore the high stakes and the need to bolster Taiwan's defenses and strengthen alliances.
Technology as a key component of the New Cold War
Advancements in military technology are critical. For example, Ukrainian drones have effectively neutralized Russian naval power at a fraction of the cost of traditional weaponry. Similarly, naval vessels equipped with Aegis air defense systems and automated AI can swiftly intercept missile threats.
The U.S. Air Force's use of AI technology is another example. In simulations, AI systems have outperformed conventional jet fighters. Expensive aircraft like the F-35 may soon be replaced by more efficient alternatives. The Pentagon’s Replicator Program, aimed at deploying inexpensive drones within 18 to 24 months, highlights this shift.
However, technological advancements also pose risks. New weapons systems might fall into the hands of rogue states and non-state actors, threatening global security.
Are China and Russia keeping up with new technologies?
China and Russia lag behind in military technology, a gap widened by U.S. sanctions and export controls against China. Xi Jinping may believe that seizing Taiwan's TSMC semiconductor plants would give China dominance in the semiconductor industry, but this is a misconception. Semiconductor manufacturing is a complex process involving contributions from many countries.
The national interests of democracies in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific are closely linked. Democracies collectively boast stronger companies in AI, semiconductor chips, quantum computing, and biotechnology. These technologies are crucial to Cold War 2.0’s outcome. Democracies also benefit from "competitive displacement," where new technologies can overtake old ones, unlike in autocracies with rigid economic controls.
NVIDIA, for instance, has unveiled groundbreaking AI technologies, which will not be shared with China due to export bans, further widening the technological gap. Ironically, these restrictions might push Xi towards drastic measures concerning Taiwan.
What must democracies do to prevail in Cold War 2.0?
Democracies need to enhance the enforcement of sanctions to prevent technology from reaching autocracies. Increased defense spending is also essential, even if it means cutting funds from education, healthcare, and pensions. Strengthening democratic institutions and defending against cognitive warfare from autocracies is critical.
In this regard, democracies like the U.S., Canada, and European countries can learn from Asian partners such as Japan and Taiwan, who have successfully defended against social media disinformation from China and Russia. The overarching message for democracies remains: "None of us is as strong as all of us."
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