The Biden administration is increasingly worried that the growing military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could significantly enhance North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and escalate tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, according to six senior U.S. officials who spoke to NBC News.
U.S. officials are also preparing for the possibility of North Korea taking its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at Putin’s urging. The timing could be intended to create turmoil in another part of the world as Americans decide whether to re-elect President Joe Biden or bring former President Donald Trump back to the White House.
“We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalatory it is,” a U.S. intelligence official said. U.S. intelligence officials previously accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election to help elect Trump. Relations between the Biden administration and Russia became especially strained after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
With Putin expected to visit North Korea to meet with Kim in the coming weeks, U.S. officials anticipate that they will solidify a new deal to expand transfers of military technology to Pyongyang.
“2024 is not going to be a good year,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster.”
A Growing Alliance
U.S. intelligence officials believe that in exchange for providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology, Putin is receiving large quantities of munitions from Pyongyang for use in Russia’s war in Ukraine. North Korea reportedly supplies Russia with more munitions than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells.
Officials are also worried that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to deploy its first submarine capable of launching a nuclear-armed missile. In September, North Korea unveiled a submarine based on an old Soviet model, but U.S. officials said Pyongyang likely exaggerated its capabilities and that additional technology is needed before it can launch a nuclear-armed missile.
Despite repeatedly offering to start talks without any preconditions, the U.S. has had no significant dialogue with the Kim regime for three years. The administration reached out to North Korea again this year, but it did not respond. U.S. officials said they do not fully understand the types of technology Russia is supplying North Korea. Unlike physical weapons transfers, sharing of military technology is harder to detect.
“The higher-end Russian technical assistance comes in forms that are very difficult indeed to monitor,” a senior administration official said.
U.S. officials warned that the North Korean ammunition is likely old and unreliable. However, North Korea sent the artillery at a time when Ukraine was struggling with its stockpiles and had to ration ammunition, giving Russia an advantage on the battlefield. In exchange for the ammunition it is providing Moscow, North Korea wants Russia to supply it with ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles, and other advanced technologies.
In recent months, North Korea has continued to advance its missile program, testing a solid-fuel engine for a hypersonic missile and making other incremental advances that have collectively improved its missile program’s reliability, U.S. officials warn.
North Korea has long sought a long-range ballistic missile capable of flying thousands of miles and re-entering the atmosphere with the payload intact. U.S. officials warn that Russia could now be assisting North Korea in achieving these final steps. A nuclear-capable missile with survivable re-entry vehicles would pose a significant challenge for U.S. missile defense systems.
U.S. officials also noted increased activity at one of North Korea’s nuclear test facilities, which could indicate preparations for another test. Satellite images published in April by Beyond Parallel, a project examining the Korean Peninsula at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, showed activity at Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility.
The group stated that “both the United States and South Korea have assessed North Korea as having completed all the required preparations for conducting a seventh nuclear test from the tunnel.”
The Biden administration has been expecting a nuclear test from North Korea for some time. The U.S. recently prepared contingency plans for how to respond if Kim takes aggressive actions in the demilitarized zone with South Korea or shells South Korea’s border islands, which he has not done since 2010.
“We are going to be ready and prepared,” the senior administration official said, noting the administration’s coordination with South Korea and Japan.
U.S. officials are also concerned that Moscow could help North Korea with its domestic weapons manufacturing and possibly create a defense industrial base partnership.
An 'October Surprise'?
Whether Putin encourages Kim to take provocative actions designed to create a so-called October surprise in the U.S. presidential election, a second senior administration official said Russia might hesitate to take such a step. The official noted that China, which has also grown closer to Russia and has helped Putin in his war in Ukraine, typically does not want instability in the region.
Still, U.S. officials admit there is much they do not know about the Russia-North Korea alliance and where it could lead. Increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region would come after two wars have broken out since Biden took office: one in Ukraine and the other between Israel and Hamas.
Trump has argued that both wars are a result of Biden’s leadership and would not have happened if he were in office. Biden administration officials strongly dispute that claim.
The increasingly close relationship between Putin and Kim marks a significant shift from when Russia previously worked with the U.S. to try to rein in North Korea. Now, Moscow is using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to shield Pyongyang from sanctions enforcement measures meant to constrain its nuclear program.
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